Armageddon (Greek ?????????; [armaged*n] also spelled Har-Magedon, or, in some modern English translations; the Mount of Megiddo), is the site of the final battle (or campaign) between God and Satan (whose name means 'adversary'), also known as the Devil. Satan will operate through the person known as the "Beast" or the Antichrist, written about in the Book of Revelation in the New Testament. More generally, it can also refer to an apocalyptic catastrophe.

The word Armageddon in Scripture is known only from a single verse in the Greek New Testament,[1] where it is said to be Hebrew, and is thought to represent the Hebrew words Har Megido (?? ?????), meaning "Mountain of Megiddo". Megiddo was the location of many decisive battles in ancient times (see Battle of Megiddo).

Doomsday Event

A doomsday event is a specific occurrence which has an exceptionally destructive effect on the human race.[1] The final outcomes of doomsday events may range from a major disruption of human civilization, to the extinction of human life, to the destruction of the planet Earth, to the annihilation of the entire universe.

A 2006 poll by SciFi.com revealed that virtually all Americans believed that some sort of doomsday scenario could realistically impact the human race, and that many feel that such a scenario is likely to be man-made.[2]

Scenarios

Doomsday events may include:

Natural occurrences

These include:

* A global pandemic.[3]

* A geological event such as massive flood basalt, volcanism, or the eruption of a supervolcano. One such event, the Toba Eruption, occurred in Indonesia about 71,500 years ago. According to the Toba catastrophe theory, the event may have reduced human populations to only a few tens of thousands of individuals. Yellowstone Caldera is another such supervolcano, having undergone 142 or more caldera-forming eruptions in the past 17 million years.[4]

* A gamma ray burst or other devastating blast of cosmic radiation.[5] One especially deadly hypothesized source is a hypernova, produced when a hypergiant star explodes and then collapses, sending vast amounts of radiation sweeping across hundreds or even thousands of lightyears of space.

Hypernovas have never been observed; however, a hypernova may have been the cause of the Ordovician-Silurian extinction events. The nearest hypergiant is thought to be Eta Carinae, approximately 8,000 light-years distant.

* An abrupt reorientation of Earth's axis of rotation.[6]

* A drastic increase or decrease in the Sun's power output.

* An impact event caused by the collision of a large meteoroid, asteroid, or comet with Earth. A common theory postulates that the extinction of the dinosaurs occurred approximately 65 million years ago as a result of the Cretaceous-Tertiary extinction event when a large asteroid struck the earth, producing atmospheric dust which blocked solar energy and caused a significant lowering of temperatures worldwide. Evidence for this theory includes a sedimentary layer of iridium in the geological record and a large crater in the area of Chicxulub, Mexico. The Tunguska event (1908) was on a much smaller scale.

* A sudden change in the physical constants governing the universe, such as that created by a vacuum metastability event.[7]

* A close approach of a black hole to the solar system.[8]

* An exceptionally devastating hypercane.

* A universal Big Rip or Big Crunch.

* Severe climate change, caused by natural earth/sun cycles.

Non-natural events

These include:

* The creation of a black hole on or close to Earth.[9]

* Depletion of oil or other important natural resources, assuming that alternatives are not found.

* Strangelet accident.

* A nuclear, chemical, or biological war.

* A cybernetic revolt.

* A grey goo inundation.

* Alien invasion.

* Severe anthropogenic global warming.

Supernatural events

These include:

* An act of divine retribution or the Last Judgment. Many religions include beliefs pertaining to the end of time.

* The Norsemen believed that the world would end in a tremendous battle of the gods known as Ragnarok.

* In the Christian Bible, the Book of Revelation describes Armageddon, a final battle between the forces of God and the forces of Satan

* In Hindu mythology, it is believed the Lord Vishnu will assume his tenth incarnation called Kalki Avatar to destroy the demon Kali and rescue the pure at heart before the world is destroyed.

* According to Strabo, the druids, priests of the Celts, believed that while the universe itself was indestructible, "both fire and water will at some time or other prevail over them" [1]

1. ^ See the Wiktionary entry for "doomsday event" for information about the range of senses and usage history for this term.

2. ^ "The Doomsday Poll". SciFi.com (2006).

3. ^ "Pandemic". Horizon. BBC. BBC Two. 2006-11-07.

4. ^ Breining, Greg (2007) (in English). Super Volcano: The Ticking Time Bomb Beneath Yellowstone National Park. Voyageur Press. p. 256. ISBN 978-0-7603-2925-2.

5. ^ Wanjek, Christopher (2005-04-06). "Explosions in Space May Have Initiated Ancient Extinction on Earth". NASA.

6. ^ Wilford, John Noble (2006-10-12). "Study Links Extinction Cycles to Changes in Earth*s Orbit and Tilt".

7. ^ S. Coleman and F. De Luccia (1980). "Gravitational effects on and of vacuum decay". Physical Review D21: 3305*3315.

8. ^ "Black Holes: The Deadliest Force in the Universe". ABC News (2006-08-28).

9. ^ Leonard, Tom (2008-01-04). "'Big Bang' machine could destroy the planet, says lawsuit". The Daily Telegraph.

Risks to civilization, humans and planet Earth

This is about the future of civilization, humans and the earth. For past civilizations, see societal collapse.

Risks to civilization, humans and planet Earth are existential risks that could threaten humankind as a whole, have adverse consequences for the course of human civilization, or even cause the end of planet Earth.[1] The concept is expressed in various phrases such as "End of the World", "Doomsday", "Armageddon", and others.

Types of risks

Various risks exist for humanity, but not all are equal. Risks can be roughly categorized into six types based on the scope (personal, regional, global) and the intensity (endurable or terminal). The following chart provides some examples::

Typology of risk [1]

*Endurable *Terminal

Global *Plate tectonics *Gamma ray burst

Regional *Flash flooding *Permanent submersion

Personal *Assault *Death

The risks discussed in this article are at least Global and Terminal in intensity. These types of risks are ones where an adverse outcome would either annihilate intelligent life, or permanently and drastically reduce its potential. Jamais Cascio made an alternative classification system.

Future scenarios

Many scenarios have been suggested. Some that will almost certainly end humanity are certain to occur, but on a very long timescale. Others are likely to happen on a shorter timescale, but will probably not completely destroy civilization. Still others are extremely unlikely, and may even be impossible. For example, Nick Bostrom writes:[2]

Some foreseen hazards (hence not members of the current category) which have been excluded from the list of bangs on grounds that they seem too unlikely to cause a global terminal disaster are: solar flares, supernovae, black hole explosions or mergers, gamma-ray bursts, galactic center outbursts, supervolcanoes, buildup of air pollution, gradual loss of human fertility, and various religious doomsday scenarios.

Space

Events in the universe will certainly cause life on Earth to come to an end. There is, however, uncertainty about what the events will be. At the latest, in about 5 billion years, stellar evolution predicts our sun will exhaust its core hydrogen and become a red giant.[3][4][5] In so doing, it will become thousands of times more luminous.[6] As a red giant, the Sun will lose roughly 30% of its mass, so, without tidal effects, the Earth will be in an orbit 1.7 AU (250,000,000 km) from the Sun when the star reaches it maximum radius. Therefore, the planet is thought to escape envelopment by the expanded Sun's sparse outer atmosphere, though most (if not all) existing life would have been destroyed by the Sun's proximity to Earth.[3] However, a more recent simulation indicates that Earth's orbit will decay due to tidal effects and drag, causing it to enter the red giant Sun's atmosphere and be destroyed.[4][7][8]

On an even longer time scale, the universe may come to an end. The current universe is estimated as being 13.73 billion years old. There are several competing theories as to the nature of our universe and how it will end, but in all cases, life as we know it will not be possible. These scenarios take place on a considerably longer timescale than the expansion of the sun. In string theory, there are some unknown variables. If those turn out to have an unfortunate value, the universe may not be stable and alter completely, destroying everything in it,[9] either at random or by an accidental experiment. This is called Quantum Vacuum Collapse by some.[10]

Meteorite impact

Long before the sun is predicted to expand into a red giant, bolides may hit the Earth. In the history of the Earth, several large meteorites have hit Earth. The Cretaceous-Tertiary asteroid, for example, is theorized to have caused the extinction of the dinosaurs. If such an object struck Earth it could have a serious impact on civilization. It is even possible that humanity would be completely destroyed; for this, the asteroid would need to be at least 1 km (0.6 miles) in diameter, but probably between 3*10 km (2*6 miles).[11] Asteroids with a 1 km diameter impact the Earth every 500,000 years[11] on average. Larger asteroids are less common. The last large (>10 km) impact happened 65 million years ago. So-called Near-Earth asteroids are regularly being observed.

A star passage that will cause an increase of meteorites is the arrival of a star called Gliese 710. This star is probably moving on a collision course with the Solar System and will likely be at a distance 1.1 light years from the Sun in 1.4 million years. Some models predict that this will send large amounts of comets from the Oort cloud to the Earth.[12] Other models, such as the one by Garc*a-S*nchez, predict an increase of only 5%.

Less likely cosmic threats

A number of other scenarios have been suggested. Massive objects, e.g., a star, large planet or black hole, could be catastrophic if a close encounter occurred in the solar system. (Gravity from the wandering objects might disrupt orbits and/or fling bodies into other objects, thus resulting in meteorite impacts or climate change. Also, heat from the wandering objects might cause extinctions; tidal forces could cause erosion along our coastlines.) Another threat might come from gamma ray bursts. [13] Both are very unlikely.[2]

Still others see extraterrestrial life as a possible threat to mankind;[14] although alien life has never been found, scientists such as Carl Sagan have postulated that the existence of extraterrestrial life is very likely. In 1969, the "Extra-Terrestrial Exposure Law" was added to the Code of Federal Regulations (Title 14, Section 1211) in response to the possibility of biological contamination resulting from the US Apollo Space Program. It was removed in 1991.[15] Scientists consider such a scenario technically possible, but unlikely.[16]

In April 2008, it was announced that two simulations of long-term planetary movement, one at Paris Observatory and the other at University of California, Santa Cruz indicate a 1% chance that Mercury's orbit could be made unstable by Jupiter's gravitational pull sometime during the lifespan of the sun. Were this to happen, the simulations suggest a collision with Earth could be one of four possible outcomes (the others being colliding with the Sun, colliding with Venus, or being ejected from the solar system altogether).[17]

Earth

Ice age

In the history of the Earth, many ice ages have occurred. More ice ages will almost certainly come at an interval of 40,000*100,000 years. This would have a serious impact on civilization, because vast areas of land (mainly in North America, Europe, and Asia) could become uninhabitable. It would still be possible to live in the tropical regions, but with possible loss of humidity/water. Currently, the world is existing in an interglacial period within a much older glacial event. The last glacial expansion ended about 10,000 years ago, and all civilizations, save a few hunter-gatherer populations, have come into existence during that time.

Global pandemic

A less predictable scenario is a global pandemic. For example, if HIV were to mutate and become as transmissible as the common cold, the consequences would be disastrous.[18] This particular scenario would also contradict the observable tendency for pathogens to become less fatal over time as a function of natural selection. A pathogen that quickly kills its hosts will not likely have enough time to spread to new ones, while one that kills its hosts more slowly or not at all will allow carriers more time to spread the infection, and thus likely outcompete a more lethal species or strain. A real-life example of this process can be found in the historical evolution of syphilis towards a less virulent form. Also, as a virus mutates and becomes easily transmittable it often gives up much of its virulence in the process. This is not to say that a highly destructive and highly transmissible disease is not possible. Ebola, for example, is highly contagious and 90% fatal; the only reason it has not caused a worldwide crisis is because outbreaks usually occur in rural Africa. Of course, a pandemic resulting in human extinction need not arise naturally; the possibility of one caused by a deliberately-engineered pathogen cannot be ruled out.

Megatsunami

Another possibility is a megatsunami. A megatsunami could, for example, destroy the entire east coast of the United States of America. The coastal areas of the entire world could also be flooded in case of the collapse of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet.[19] While none of these scenarios are likely to destroy humanity completely, they could regionally threaten civilization. There has been one recent high-fatality tsunami, although it was not big enough to be a megatsunami.

Ecological disaster

An ecological disaster, such as world crop failure and collapse of ecosystem services, could be induced by the present trends of overpopulation, economic development,[20] and non-sustainable agriculture. Most of these scenarios involve one or more of the following: Holocene extinction event, scarcity of water that could lead to approximately one half of the Earth's population being without safe drinking water, pollinator decline, overfishing, massive deforestation, desertification, climate change, or massive water pollution episodes. A very recent threat in this direction is colony collapse disorder, a phenomenon that might foreshadow the imminent extinction[21] of the Western honeybee. As the bee plays a vital role in pollination, its extinction would severely disrupt the food chain.

World population and agricultural crisis

The 20th century saw a rapid increase in human population due to medical advances and massive increase in agricultural productivity[22] made by the Green Revolution.[23] Between 1950 and 1984, as the Green Revolution transformed agriculture around the globe, world grain production increased by 250%. The Green Revolution in agriculture helped food production to keep pace with worldwide population growth or actually enabled population growth. The energy for the Green Revolution was provided by fossil fuels in the form of fertilizers (natural gas), pesticides (oil), and hydrocarbon fueled irrigation.[24] David Pimentel, professor of ecology and agriculture at Cornell University, and Mario Giampietro, senior researcher at the National Research Institute on Food and Nutrition (INRAN), place in their study Food, Land, Population and the U.S. Economy the maximum U.S. population for a sustainable economy at 200 million. To achieve a sustainable economy and avert disaster, the United States must reduce its population by at least one-third, and world population will have to be reduced by two-thirds, says the study.[25]

The authors of this study believe that the mentioned agricultural crisis will only begin to impact us after 2020, and will not become critical until 2050. Geologist Dale Allen Pfeiffer claims that coming decades could see spiraling food prices without relief and massive starvation on a global level such as never experienced before.[26][27]

Pole shift theory

An abrupt reorientation of Earth's axis of rotation could cause a new extinction event.[28]

Supervolcano

When the supervolcano at Yellowstone last erupted 640,000 years ago, the magma and ash ejected from the caldera covered most of the United States west of the Mississippi river and part of northeastern Mexico.[29] Another such eruption could threaten civilization. Such an eruption could also release large amounts of gases that could alter the balance of the planet's carbon dioxide and cause a runaway greenhouse effect, or enough pyroclastic debris and other material may be thrown into the atmosphere to partially block out the sun and cause a volcanic winter, as happened in 1816, the Year Without A Summer. Such an eruption may cause the immediate deaths of millions of people several hundred miles from the eruption, and perhaps billions of deaths[30] worldwide due to the failure of the monsoon[citation needed], as well as destruction of the "American breadbasket", causing starvation on a massive scale.[30]

Modification of the Sun's properties

The Earth will likely be dragged into the Sun when it becomes an enlarged red giant by no later than about 7.6 billion years[31]; before actual collision with the sun, the oceans would evaporate, and Earth could be destroyed by tidal forces. Alternatively, if the Sun shrinks to a white dwarf before consuming Earth, the Earth would be too frigid to sustain life.

Humanity

Some threats for humanity come from humanity itself. The scenario that has been explored most is a nuclear war or another weapon with similar possibilities. It is difficult to predict whether it would exterminate humanity, but very certainly could alter civilization, in particular if there was a nuclear winter.[32]

Another category of disasters are unforeseen consequences of technology.

It has been suggested that learning computers that rapidly become superintelligent may take unforeseen actions or that robots would out-compete humanity.[33] Because of its exceptional scheduling and organisational capability and the range of novel technologies it could develop, it is possible that the first Earth superintelligence to emerge could rapidly become very, very powerful. Quite possibly, it would be matchless and unrivalled: conceivably it would be able to bring about almost any possible outcome, and be able to foil virtually any attempt that threatened to prevent it achieving its desires.[34] It could eliminate, wiping out if it chose, any other challenging rival intellects, alternatively it might manipulate or persuade them to change their behaviour towards its own interests, or it may merely obstruct their attempts at interference.[34]

Biotechnology could lead to the creation of a pandemic, Nanotechnology could lead to grey goo in which out-of-control self-replicating robots consume all living matter on Earth while building more of themselves - in both cases, either deliberately or by accident.[35] It has also been suggested that physical scientists might accidentally create a device that could destroy the earth and the solar system.[36] Another kind of accident is the Ice-9 Type Transition, in which our planet including everything on it becomes a strange matter planet in a chain reaction. Some do not view this as a credible scenario.[37]

It has been suggested that runaway global warming might cause the climate on Earth to become like Venus, which would make it uninhabitable. In less extreme scenarios it could cause the end of civilization.[38] According to a UN climate report, the Himalayan glaciers that are the sources of Asia's biggest rivers - Ganges, Indus, Brahmaputra, Yangtze, Mekong, Salween and Yellow - could disappear by 2035 as temperatures rise.[39] Approximately 2.4 billion people live in the drainage basin of the Himalayan rivers.[40] India, China, Pakistan, Bangladesh, Nepal and Myanmar could experience floods followed by droughts in coming decades. In India alone, the Ganges provides water for drinking and farming for more than 500 million people.[41][42][43] The west coast of North America, which gets much of its water from glaciers in mountain ranges such as the Rocky Mountains and Sierra Nevada, also would be affected.[44][45] According to the California Department of Water Resources, if more water supplies are not found by 2020, California residents will face a water shortfall nearly as great as the amount consumed today.[46]

Approximately 40% of the world's agricultural land is seriously degraded.[47] In Africa, if current trends of soil degradation continue, the continent might be able to feed just 25% of its population by 2025, according to UNU's Ghana-based Institute for Natural Resources in Africa.[48]

James Lovelock, creator of the Gaia hypothesis, in his book The Revenge of Gaia (2006), has suggested that the elimination of rain forests, and the falling planetary biodiversity is removing the homeostatic negative feedback mechanisms that maintain climate stability by reducing the effects of greenhouse gas emissions (particularly carbon dioxide). With the heating of the oceans, the extension of the thermocline layer into Arctic and Antarctic waters is preventing the overturning and nutrient enrichment necessary for algal blooms of phytoplankton on which the ecosystems of these areas depend. With the loss of phytoplankton and tropical rain forests, two of the main carbon dioxide sinks for reducing global warming, he suggests a runaway positive feedback effect could cause tropical deserts to cover most of the world's tropical regions, and the disappearance of polar ice caps, posing a serious challenge to global civilization.

Using scenario analysis, the Global scenario group (GSG), a coalition of international scientists convened by Paul Raskin, developed a series of possible futures for the world as it enters a Planetary Phase of Civilization. One scenario involves the complete breakdown of civilization as the effects of climate change become more pronounced, competition for scarce resources increases, and the rift between the poor and the wealthy widens. The GSG*s other scenarios, such as Policy Reform, Eco-Communalism, and Great Transition avoid this societal collapse and eventually result in environmental and social sustainability. They claim the outcome is dependent on human choice[49] and the possible formation of a global citizens movement which could influence the trajectory of global development.[50]

Other scenarios

Peak oil

Fossil Fuels attain a level of scarcity before an economically viable replacement is devised, leading firstly to economic strain, followed by the collapse of modern agriculture, then to mass-starvation, and ending in global thermonuclear war.[51]

Antibiotic resistance

Natural selection would create super bacteria that are resistant to antibiotics, devastating the world population and causing a global collapse of civilization.[52]

Gulf Stream shutdown

There is some speculation that global warming could, via a shutdown or slowdown of the thermohaline circulation, trigger localized cooling in the North Atlantic and lead to cooling in that region. This would affect in particular areas like Ireland, the Nordic countries, and Britain that are warmed by the North Atlantic drift.[53][54]

Demography

Demographic trends create a "baby bust" that threatens the order of civilization.[55]

Mutual assured destruction

A full scale nuclear war could kill billions, and the resulting nuclear winter would effectively crush any form of civilization.

Overpopulation

Some scenarios of simultaneous ecological (food & water production) and economical (see f.e. below) collapses with overpopulation are presumed to lead to a global civil war, where the remaining habitable areas are destroyed by competing humans (so called 'Mad Max'-scenario).

Famine

As of late 2007, increased farming for use in biofuels, along with world oil prices at over $140 a barrel,[56] has pushed up the price of grain used to feed poultry and dairy cows and other cattle, causing higher prices of wheat (up 58%), soybean (up 32%), and maize (up 11%) over the year.[57][58] Food riots have recently taken place in many countries across the world.[59][60][61] An epidemic of stem rust on wheat caused by race Ug99 is currently spreading across Africa and into Asia and is causing major concern. Scientists say millions of people face starvation.[62][63][64]

Experimental accident

The unlikely creation of a hypothetical microsingularity or exotic matter in particle acceleration experiments, or some unanticipated experimental accident, resulting in destruction of the planet or a large scale disaster.

There were fears (since dismissed) that the first test of an atomic weapon, the Trinity test might have led to ignition of the atmosphere and global destruction[citation needed]. In 2008, concern arose that the Large Hadron Collider might trigger a disaster when activated,[65] although the consensus in the scientific community is that there is no basis for any conceivable threat from the LHC particle collisions.[66][67][68]

Historical futurist scenarios

Sir Isaac Newton (1642-1727), who was involved in alchemy and many other things in addition to science and mathematics, studied old texts and surmised that the end of the world would happen no earlier than 2060, although he was reluctant to put an exact date on it.[69]

Many believe that the Maya civilization's Long Count calendar ends abruptly on December 21, 2012. This misconception is due to the Maya practice of using only five places in Long Count Calendar inscriptions. On some monuments the Maya calculated dates far into the past and future but there is no end of the world date. There will be a Piktun ending (a cycle of 13 144,000 day Bak'tuns) on December 21st, 2012. A Piktun marks the end of a 1,872,000 day or approximately 5125 year period and is a significant event in the Maya calendar. However, there is no Historical or Scientific evidence that the Mayas believed it would be a doomsday.

The ten threats identified by the High Level Threat Panel of the United Nations are these:

1. Poverty

2. Infectious disease

3. Environmental degradation

4. Inter-state war

5. Civil war

6. Genocide

7. Other Atrocities (e.g., trade in women and children for sexual slavery, or kidnapping for body parts)

8. Weapon of mass destruction (nuclear proliferation, chemical weapon proliferation, biological weapon proliferation)

9. Terrorism

10. Transnational organized crime

The Planetary Phase of Civilization

The Planetary Phase of Civilization is a concept defined by the Global Scenario Group (GSG), an environmental organization that specializes in scenario analysis and forecasting. Proponents of the Planetary Phase of Civilization state that it refers to a current historical transition from a world of capitalist states and consumerist societies to a world of increased global connectivity with new global institutions (like the United Nations and the World Trade Organization), new information technologies, environmental change in the biosphere, economic globalization, and shifts in culture and consciousness. While it is generally agreed that some form of planetary society is taking shape and binding the world*s people and biosphere into a common fate, the future character of global society is uncertain and contested.

Background

The notion of the Planetary Phase of Civilization rests on extensive sociological and anthropological study done by the GSG. Convened in 1995 by Paul Raskin, President of the Stockholm Environmental Institute and Tellus Institute, the GSG examines alternative plausible futures by observing trends in societal change in various domains. Their scenarios, published in a series of essays, have been used in numerous regional, local, and global studies including the United Nations Environmental Program (UNEP)*s Global Environmental Outlook Series (GEO). The Global Scenario Group synthesized its findings for a non-technical audience in their essay entitled Great Transition: The Promise and Lure of the Times Ahead. An October 2005 article in the Monthly Review entitled *Organizing Ecological Revolution* described the current *global environmental crisis* and the GSG*s efforts as *the most ambitious attempt thus far to carry out such a broad assessment* of our current and future ecological situation.

Historical transitions

In a historical perspective, the Planetary Phase of Civilization is viewed by its proponents as the third significant transition in civilization. Though history is complex and difficult to distinguish, they argue that changes from the Stone Age to Early civilization and then to the Modern Era are the first two macro-shifts in human society and culture. These transitions can be differentiated based on social organization, economy, and communications. The Stone Age consisted of the most basic and simple versions * tribes and villages, hunting and gathering, and language as the only means of communication. The shift into Early Civilization brought more structured city-states and kingdoms, settled agriculture, and writing. Society developed further in the Modern Era into nation-states with industrial systems and printing, which enhanced communication and increased the complexity of society. Proponents argue that unlike prior transitions, the Planetary Phase marks a new geologic era, the Anthropocene, in which human activity fundamentally alters ecosystems and the climate.

In Great Transition: The Promise and Lure of the Times Ahead, the GSG argues that historical transitions appear to be accelerating as each successive period lasts for a shorter amount of time than the previous one. It speculates that the current Planetary Phase will last for about 100 years, during which there will be a clear progression in science and technology toward a more complex and environmentally interdependent society. The GSG uses this assumption to create scenarios which lead to varying futures ranging from Breakdown to Policy Reform to Eco-Communalism. The GSG contends that the most desirable scenario is a "Great Transition" to an environmentally and socially sustainable global civilization. This scenario, however, depends in part on the emergence of a global citizens movement as a potential actor to contest the power of transnational corporations and state governments.

Applications

The concept of the planetary phase of civilization has become popular in the academic field of environmental science. In "Building a Global Culture of Peace". Steven C. Rockefeller states that "...we have entered a planetary phase in the development of civilization - what the historians call an era of global history." In his article entitled "Paths to Planetary Civilization," Ervin Laszlo describes this planetary civilization as one in which "The consensually created and globally coordinated ecosocial market system begins to function" and "The natural resources required for health and vitality become available to all the peoples and countries of the human community."

This kind of scenario analysis helps analysts think in an organized fashion about future alternatives, key decision points, and possible obstacles to global development. It then becomes possible to determine how to avoid the less-favorable directions and encourage changes to nurture a more beneficial one.

NATIVE AMERICAN PROPHECY

American Indians are a diverse ethnic group. Their languages, customs, social systems varied greatly. One common characteristic found in many Indian nations was an affinity to the spiritual side of life. Out of this came man prophecies.

One of the most fascinating set of prophecies comes out of the Hopi nation located in the Southwestern United States. Many prophecies foretold by the Hopi appear to have come true. Some of these are:

"The Fourth World shall end soon, and the Fifth World will begin. This the elders everywhere know. The Signs over many years have been fulfilled, and so few are left.

"This is the First Sign: We are told of the coming of the white-skinned men, like Pahana, but not living like Pahana men who took the land that was not theirs. And men who struck their enemies with thunder.

"This is the Second Sign: Our lands will see the coming of spinning wheels filled with voices. In his youth, my father saw this prophecy come true with his eyes -- the white men bringing their families in wagons across the prairies."

"This is the Third Sign: A strange beast like a buffalo but with great long horns, will overrun the land in large numbers. These White Feather saw with his eyes -- the coming of the white men's cattle."

"This is the Fourth Sign: The land will be crossed by snakes of iron."

"This is the Fifth Sign: The land shall be criss-crossed by a giant spider's web."

"This is the Sixth sign: The land shall be criss-crossed with rivers of stone that make pictures in the sun."

"This is the Seventh Sign: You will hear of the sea turning black, and many living things dying because of it."

"This is the Eight Sign: You will see many youth, who wear their hair long like my people, come and join the tribal nations, to learn their ways and wisdom.

"And this is the Ninth and Last Sign: You will hear of a dwelling-place in the heavens, above the earth, that shall fall with a great crash. It will appear as a blue star. Very soon after this, the ceremonies of my people will cease.

"These are the Signs that great destruction is coming. The world shall rock to and fro. The white man will battle against other people in other lands -- with those who possessed the first light of wisdom. There will be many columns of smoke and fire such as White Feather has seen the white man make in the deserts not far from here. Only those which come will cause disease and a great dying.

Overall, the theme of Hopi prophecy is that the Earth is going to soon go through a great purification and that humanity can make the decision as to how extreme this purification will be. Their belief is that the world goes through a period of destruction and renewal and that we are about to enter into a new age, the 5th world (or 6th depending upon the source).

Other Native American Prophecies

Mohawk Prophecy of the Seventh Generation

According to the prophecy of the Seventh Generation, seven generations after contact with the Europeans the Onkwehonwe would see the day when the elm trees would die. The prophecy said that strange animals would be born deformed and without the proper limbs. Huge stone monsters would tear open the face of the earth. The rivers would burn. The air would burn the eyes of man. According to the prophecy of the Seventh Generation the Onkwehonwe would see the time when the birds would fall from the sky. The fish would die in the water. And man would grow ashamed of the way that he had treated his Mother and Provider, the Earth.

Finally, according to this prophecy, after seven generations of living in close contact with the Europeans, the Onkwehonwe would rise up and demand that their rights and stewardship over the Earth be respected and restored.

According to the wisdom of this prophecy, men and women would one day turn to the Onkwehonwe for both guidance and direction. It is up to the present generation of youth of the Kanienkehaka to provide leadership and example to all who have failed. The children of the Kanienkehaka are the seventh generation.

Deganawidah: The Two Serpents

American Prophecies by Scott Peterson

When Deganawidah was leaving the Indians in the Bay of Quinte in Ontario, he told the Indian people that they would face a time of great suffering. They would distrust their leaders and the principles of peace of the League, and a great white serpent was to come upon the Iroquois, and that for a time it would intermingle with the Indian serpent as a friend.

This serpent would in time become so powerful that it would attempt to destroy the Indian, and the serpent is described as choking the life's blood out of the Indian people. Deganawidah told the Indians that they would be in such a terrible state at this point that all hope would seem to be lost, and he told them that when things looked their darkest a red serpent would come from the north and approach the white serpent, which would be terrified, and upon seeing the red serpent he would release the Indian, who would fall to the ground almost like a helpless child, and the white serpent would turn all its attention to the red serpent. The bewilderment would cause the white serpent to accept the red one momentarily.

The white serpent would be stunned and take part of the red serpent and accept him. Then there is a heated argument and a fight. And then the Indian revives and crawls toward the land of the hilly country, and then he would assemble his people together, and they would renew their faith and the principles of peace that Deganawidah had established.

There would at the same time exist among the Indians a great love and forgiveness for his brother, and in this gathering would come streams from all over -- not only the Iroquois but from all over -- and they would gather in this hilly country, and they would renew their friendship. And Deganawidah said they would remain neutral in this fight between the white and red serpents.

At the time they were watching the two serpents licked in this battle, a great message would come to them, which would make them ever so humble, and when they become that humble, they will be waiting for a young leader, an Indian boy, possibly in his teens, who would be a choice seer. Nobody knows who he is or where he comes from, but he will be given great power, and would be heard by thousands, and he would give them the guidance and the hope to refrain from going back to their land and he would be the accepted leader.

And Deganawidah said that they will gather in the land of the hilly country, beneath the branches of an elm tree, and they should burn tobacco and call upon Deganawidah by name when facing the darkest hours, and he will return. Deganawidah said that as the choice seer speaks to the Indians that number as the blades of grass, and he would be heard by all at the same time, and as the Indians are gathered watching the fight, they notice from the south a black serpent coming from the sea, and he is described as dripping with salt water, and as he stands there, he rests for a spell to get his breath, all the time watching to the north to the land where the white and red serpents are fighting.

Deganawidah said that the battle between the white and the red serpents opened very slowly but would then become so violent that the mountains would crack and the rivers would boil and the fish would turn up on their bellies. He said that there would be no leaves on the trees in that area. There would be no grass, and that strange bugs and beetles would crawl from the ground and attack both serpents, and he said that a great heat would cause the stench of death to sicken both serpents. And then, as the boy seer is watching this fight, the red serpent reaches around the back of the white serpent and pulls from him a hair which is carried toward the south by a great wind into the waiting hands of the black serpent, and as the black serpent studies this hair, it suddenly turns into a woman, a white woman who tells him things that he knows to be true but he wants to hear them again.

When this white woman finishes telling these things, he takes her and gently places her on a rock with great love and respect, and then he becomes infuriated at what he has heard, so he makes a beeline for the north, and he enters the battle between the red and white serpents with such speed and anger that he defeats the two serpents, who have already been battle weary.

When he finishes, he stand on the chest of the white serpent, and he boasts and puts his chest out like he*s the conqueror, and he looks for another serpent to conquer. He looks to the land of the hilly country and then sees the Indian standing with his arms folded and looking ever so noble that he knows that this Indian is not the one to fight. The next direction that he will face will be eastward and at that time he will be momentarily blinded by a light that is many times brighter than the sun.

The light will be coming from the east to the west over the water, and when the black serpent regains his sight, he becomes terrified and makes a beeline for the sea.

He dips into the sea and swims away in a southerly direction, and shall never again be seen by the Indians.

The white serpent revives, and he too sees the light, and he makes a feeble attempt to gather himself and go toward that light.

A portion of the white serpent refuses to remain but instead makes its way toward the land of the hilly country, and there he will join the Indian People with a great love like that of a lost brother.

The rest of the white serpent would go to the sea and dip into the sea and would be lost out of sight for a spell. Then suddenly the white serpent would appear again on the top of the water and he would be slowly swimming toward the light. Deganawidah said that the white serpent would never again be troublesome to the Indian People.

The red serpent would revive and he would shiver with great fear when he sees that light. He would crawl to the north and leave a bloody, shaky trail northward, and he would never be seen again by the Indians. Deganawidah said as this light approaches that he would be that light, and he would return to his Indian People, and when he returns, the Indian People would be a greater nation than they had ever been before.

Iroquois Prophecy

It's prophesied in our Instructions that the end of the world will be near when the trees start dying from the tops down. That's what the maples are doing today. Our Instructions say the time will come when there will be no corn, when nothing will grow in the garden, when water will be filthy and unfit to drink.

Then a great monster will rise up from the water and destroy mankind. One of the names of that monster is "the sickness that eats you up inside" like diabetes or cancer or AIDS. Maybe AIDS is the monster. It's coming. It's already here.

Our prophet Handsome Lake told of it in the 1700s. He saw Four Beings, like four angels, coming from the Four Directions. They told him what would happen, how there would be diseases we'd never heard of before. You will see many tears in this country. Then a great wind will come, a wind that will make a hurricane seem like a whisper. It will cleanse the earth and return it to its original state. That will be the punishment for what we've done to the Creation.

Reference Links:

http://www.dreamscape.com/morgana/telesto.htm

http://www.welcomehome.org/rainbow/prophecy/BlackElk.html